Resources - Impact of No Deal for Wales

FRC Food Brexit Policy Briefing - View guide here

Published by the Chartered Institute of Environmental Health, in conjunction with the Food Research Collaboration

  • Guidance for local authorities on preparing for a no deal food Brexit

The Brexit Endgame - A Short Guide - View guide here

Published by the Bingham Centre for the Rule of Law and The UK in a Changing Europe

  • Provides a summary of what needs to happen in both the UK and the EU for the Brexit process to be completed, and what might derail that process along the way

Summary of EU Exit Scenario Planning Workshops - View report here

Published by Welsh Government

  • In relation to agriculture the key activities identified as being at risk include sheep farming and fisheries, whilst diary, poultry and beef are expected to be more resilient. Food prices are expected to increase under all scenarios considered

EU Transition and Economic Prospects for Large and Medium Sized Firms in Wales - View report here

Published by the Welsh Economy Research Unit (Cardiff University)

  • A study assessing the prospects for businesses in Wales and published in 2017

Preliminary Results: % Change in Wales regional GVA (Gross Value Added), EEA type, FTA type and WTO mitigated - View findings here 

Published by the House of Commons Exiting the EU Committee

  • Suggested overall reduction in GVA in Wales ranges from -2% (EEA type) to -10% (WTO mitigated)

The Local Economic Effects of Brexit - View report here

Published by the London School of Economics and Political Science / Centre for Economic Performance 

  • The analysis covers both a Soft Brexit and Hard Brexit
  • Appendix 2 (on page 15) provides a forecast of the initial impact of Brexit for Local Authorities (% change Gross Value Added) 

Brexit Impact Log - View log here

Published by Pembrokeshire County Council


The WLGA has developed a checklist for local authorities to use to assess their key risks.

View WLGA/Grant Thornton Brexit Preparedness Toolkit here

The sort of issues it will aim to cover when considering how a No Deal / Worst Case Scenario would play out locally are outlined as follows:

  1. Workforce audit (Internal/Contract) (How many non-UK EU workers in the workforce? Any key/specialist workers? What are their plans?)
  2. Impact of loss of EU funding on existing and future planned projects
  3. Local economy impact assessment – Identifying and understanding investment plans of local companies (especially in ‘at risk’ sectors) and considering any knock-on supply and service contract issues (including impact on business occupancy in local authority owned units)
  4. Consideration of service by service impacts (For example: Using sector specific reports e.g. The NHS Welsh Confederation Briefing - The key issues for health and social care organisations as the UK prepares to leave the European Union (View here) and drawing where appropriate on EU Preparedness Notices (View here) and Government No Deal Guidance - How to prepare if the UK leaves the EU with no deal (View here)
  5. New institutional arrangements – Implications? (For example: plans for a new independent environment body to replace the European Commission and European Court of Justice regarding enforcement/complaints)
  6. Review of Emergency plans (For example: Dealing with issues such as food shortages, energy supply issues and civil unrest)
  7. Discussions with partners to understand their issues (Health, FE/HE, Voluntary Sector)
  8. Transport impact (For example: Local transport disruption on routes to ports)
  9. Legal certainty (What statutory instruments need to be in place to give legal cover once EU law ends and what progress Is being made by UK Government and Welsh Government)
  10. Financial implications (If the UK economy nosedives the Welsh block grant will fall and financial estimates will have to be down-sized accordingly)
  11. Standards and targets (These are currently set in Brussels, but what will take their place and will there be pressure to reduce standards?)

 

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The Welsh Local Government Association (WLGA) represents the interests of local government and promotes local democracy in Wales.

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