The Net Zero Scenario Planner, commissioned by WLGA and Welsh Government, supports councils to calculate approximate costs and carbon emissions of decarbonising their buildings estates across three incremental scenarios. Developed by Local Partnerships, this decision-making aid also considers Street Lighting and Fleet scenarios and provides timelines to the 2030 aspiration for a net zero public sector.
In addition to reducing carbon emissions there are wider advantages of decarbonising buildings for councils in Wales. Once the decarbonisation measures are in place, councils will also benefit from more efficient technologies in heat pumps compared to fossil fuel boilers, and lower energy bills. Council staff will value more comfortable workplaces, and cleaner air.
Decarbonising local government buildings includes learning and living environments, where warm classrooms in schools are conducive to learning and warm living spaces in care homes are essential for healthy and safe care[1] – supporting Wales’ well-being goal for a healthier Wales.
The transition of corporate fleet vehicles from fossil fuels to electricity also fosters cleaner air.[2] Similarly, the transition to LED street lighting, which councils have already implemented across much of Wales, promotes safer environments and community well-being.
In addition to realising these benefits, buildings decarbonisation also offers steps towards achieving the nation’s well-being goal for a prosperous Wales. This is in terms of moving towards a low carbon society, developing skills and employment, and generating wealth in supply-chains, including locally, through the installation and maintenance of heat pumps, insulation, and renewable energy.[3] For example, decarbonising nine local government buildings through Welsh Government’s Low Carbon Heat Grant has contributed over £12 million to the economy. The economic opportunities through climate action are highlighted in a new report by OECD and the United Nations Development Programme.[4]
This National Findings Report has estimated the total cost of decarbonising local government buildings in Wales at £2.3 - £2.8 billion. The decarbonisation measures in the Scenario Planner are estimated to cut carbon emissions by 71%, with schools accounting for 59% of the estate. However, this is the primary cost of decarbonising the buildings and should be considered alongside the explanatory note on secondary / consequential costs below.
Councils are working through their personalised Scenario Planners with support from WLGA and Local Partnerships. Feedback from councils on their data and potential buildings decarbonisation plans will be crucial in informing a strategic approach and related opportunities (e.g. collaborative procurement).
Whilst we are acutely aware that local authorities do not have the financial capital to undertake the measures wholescale, it is important to have these figures available to inform future strategies and spending reviews. Where investment resources are available, the Scenario Planner will help councils to decide which building types to prioritise.
Also, it is important to highlight the cost of doing nothing. If local authorities (and other public bodies) do not mitigate and adapt to climate change, additional costs will be incurred from the acute response to extreme weather, flooding and heatwave events which are likely to increase in frequency and intensity.
For example:
The immediate clean-up and emergency repairs costs caused by Storm Bert in November 2024 were estimated to exceed £10 million in Wales. This was rapidly followed by Storm Darragh.
These extreme climate events will also have negative impacts on health, mental well-being, air quality, food security, and service delivery.
Explanatory Note on Decarbonisation and Secondary / Consequential Costs:
The analysis estimates the primary cost of delivering the decarbonisation measures in each scenario, excluding any secondary or consequential costs. This means the figures cover the cost of decarbonisation measures, their installation and associated design and commissioning, but exclude other costs which may be incurred such as:
- Asbestos removal
- Scaffolding (if required) and other additional site costs
- Decanting of building to enable the works, and provision of alternative temporary accommodation (e.g. for schools)
- Rectification of maintenance issues (e.g. non-compliant wiring, structural issues)
- Additional updating (e.g. for ICT) / decoration / repair works
- Revenue costs (e.g. Planning permission costs (where required) and project management costs; communication costs notifying those affected by the works)
These costs, although potentially very significant and/or unavoidable in practice, are not primarily a cost of delivering the decarbonisation measures but reflect existing estate issues or operational needs. They are also very building specific and not suitable for benchmarking at this scale; where one building may have no secondary costs, another may be so significant to make demolition and rebuilding cost effective (although such an approach would likely not be beneficial on a carbon basis). The local government buildings estate also includes properties which are grade-listed and from the Victorian era.
As such, the figures in this National Findings Report cover the cost of delivering the identified decarbonisation measures only, and the total costs of delivery may cover a much wider range of activities and so could be considerably higher, potentially several times more than the primary costs.
Engagement with councils on the Scenario Planner has been through the Climate Strategy Panel’s Buildings Task and Finish Group. Several councils also helped with a benchmarking exercise to compare their schools’ data in the Scenario Planner with a separate commission by WG Education Department on decarbonisation of the education estate.
If you have questions or comments on any aspect of the Scenario Planner please e-mail: Richard.Lewis@wlga.gov.uk and Dewi.Jones@wlga.gov.uk
Resources:
[1] Climate Change in Wales: Health Impact Assessment - World Health Organization Collaborating Centre On Investment for Health and Well-being
[2] Wales' Fourth Carbon Budget - Climate Change Committee
[3] Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015: the essentials
[4] Investing in climate for growth and development the case for enhanced NDCs: key messages